期刊
DIGESTIVE AND LIVER DISEASE
卷 43, 期 1, 页码 66-72出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.dld.2010.05.006
关键词
Decompensated cirrhosis; Hepatocellular carcinoma; Liver failure; Simulation
资金
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Division of Viral Hepatitis [200-2003-02489-0007]
Background: Without diagnosis and antiviral therapy, many patients with chronic hepatitis C infections will develop end-stage liver disease and die from complications. Aims: To evaluate the future impacts of preventive interventions and treatment advances, this paper forecasts a baseline estimate of the future morbidity and mortality of prevalent hepatitis C when left untreated. Methods: We simulated the future disease progression and death for all Americans with prevalent hepatitis C in 2005. To validate the model, we used past seroprevalence to forecast contemporary outcomes. We used the validated model to forecast future cases of end-stage liver disease, transplants, and deaths from 2010 to 2060, and we estimated credible intervals using Monte Carlo simulation. Results: When programmed with past data, our model predicted current levels of hepatitis C outcomes with accuracy between +/- 1% and 13%. Morbidity and mortality from hepatitis C will rise from 2010 to a peak between the years 2030 and 2035. We forecasted a peak of 38,600 incident cases of end-stage liver disease; 3200 referrals for transplant; and 36,100 deaths. Conclusions: Because current rates of screening and treatment are low, future morbidity and mortality from hepatitis C are likely to increase substantially without public health interventions to increase treatment. (C) 2010 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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