期刊
DIABETOLOGIA
卷 58, 期 1, 页码 87-97出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00125-014-3390-x
关键词
Incident type 2 diabetes; Mathematical modelling; One-hour post-OGTT plasma glucose; Oral glucose tolerance test; Prevention
资金
- Sigrid Juselius Foundation
- Folkhalsan Research Foundation
- Signe
- Ane Gyllenberg Foundation
- Swedish Cultural Foundation in Finland
- Finnish Diabetes Research Foundation
- Foundation for Life and Health in Finland
- Finnish Medical Society
- Paavo Nurmi Foundation
- Helsinki University Central Hospital Research Foundation
- Perklen Foundation
- Ollqvist Foundation
- Narpes Health Care Foundation
- Ahokas Foundation
- Municipal Heath Care Center
- Hospital in Jakobstad
- Health Care Center in Vasa
- Health Care Center in Narpes
- Health Care Center in Korsholm
- Swedish Research Council [31475113580]
- Heart and Lung Foundation
- Diabetes Research Society
- Nordic Center of Excellence Grant in Disease Genetics
- Diabetes Program at the Lund University
- European Foundation for the Study of Diabetes
- Pahlsson Foundation
- Craaford Foundation
- Novo Nordisk Foundation
- European Network of Genomic and Genetic Epidemiology
- Wallenberg Foundation
- Canada Research Chair
- Novo Nordisk Fonden [NNF15OC0016416, NNF14OC0010995] Funding Source: researchfish
Aims/hypothesis The relevance of the OGTT in predicting type 2 diabetes is unclear. We assessed the performance of 14 OGTT glucose traits in type 2 diabetes prediction. Methods We studied 2,603 and 2,386 Europeans from the Botnia study and Malmo Prevention Project (MPP) cohorts with baseline OGTT data. Over a follow-up period of 4.94 years and 23.5 years, 155 (5.95%) and 467 (19.57%) participants, respectively, developed type 2 diabetes. The main outcome was incident type 2 diabetes. Results One-hour plasma glucose (1h-PG) was a fair/good predictor of incident type 2 diabetes in the Botnia study and MPP (AUC for receiver operating characteristic [AUC(ROC)] 0.80 [0.77, 0.84] and 0.70 [0.68, 0.73]). 1h-PG alone outperformed the prediction model of multiple clinical risk factors (age, sex, BMI, family history of type 2 diabetes) in the Botnia study and MPP (AUC(ROC) 0.75 [0.72, 0.79] and 0.67 [0.64, 0.70]). The same clinical risk factors added to 1h-PG modestly increased prediction for incident type 2 diabetes (Botnia, AUC(ROC) 0.83 [0.80, 0.86]; MPP, AUC(ROC) 0.74 [0.72, 0.77]). 1h-PG also outperformed HbA(1c) in predicting type 2 diabetes in the Botnia cohort. A 1h-PG value of 8.9 mmol/l and 8.4 mmol/l was the optimal cut-point for initial screening and selection of high-risk individuals in the Botnia study and MPP, respectively, and represented 30% and 37% of all participants in these cohorts. High-risk individuals had a substantially increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes (OR 8.0 [5.5, 11.6] and 3.8 [3.1, 4.7]) and captured 75% and 62% of all incident type 2 diabetes in the Botnia study and MPP. Conclusions/interpretation1h-PG is a valuable prediction tool for identifying adults at risk for future type 2 diabetes.
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