A Computer Model of Dementia Prevalence in Australia: Foreseeing Outcomes of Delaying Dementia Onset, Slowing Disease Progression, and Eradicating Dementia Types

Background: A computer model was designed to test hypothetical scenarios regarding dementia prevalence in Australia (2001-2040). Methods: The study implemented 3 scenarios: delaying dementia onset, slowing disease progression and, in a previously unpublished experiment, eradicating dementia types. Sensitivity analysis and parameter variation were the main methods of experimentation. Results: The model predicts that delaying dementia onset by 5 years will reduce the 2040 prevalence by 37%. An onset delay of 2 years, introduced in 2010, will reduce the 2040 prevalence by 16%. Slowing disease progression increases the 2040 prevalence by 4-7%. Total eradication of Alzheimer's disease (currently approximately 50% of all dementia cases) in 2020 will decrease the 2040 prevalence by 42%. Conclusion: Computer modeling of future scenarios and interventions helps health and aged care planners understand the likely challenges society will face with the ageing of the world's population. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel