Influence of renal function on long-term graft survival and patient survival in renal transplant recipients

Objectives: Renal function post kidney transplantation is an outcome of interest for both clinicians and regulators evaluating immunosuppressive treatments post-transplantation. The current review sought to provide a synopsis of currently available literature examining the relationship between post-transplantation renal function and long-term graft survival and patient survival. Methods: A systematic literature review was performed using the PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane Library databases. The search strategy was designed based on high level Medical Subject Heading (MeSH) terms and designed to capture studies published in English to 2012 and identified a total of 2683 unique hits; for inclusion studies were required to have>100 patients. Following two rounds of screening, a total of 27 studies were included in the final review (26 of which were identified via the literature review and one study was identified via searches of the reference sections of included studies). Results: The consensus among studies was that lower post-transplantation GFR, in particular 12 month GFR, was consistently and significantly associated with an increased risk for overall graft loss, death-censored graft loss and all-cause mortality in both univariate and multivariate analyses. The magnitude of the association between reduced GFR and outcomes was greater for death-censored graft loss versus overall graft loss and for graft loss in comparison with overall patient mortality. The predictive utility of GFR alone in predicting long-term outcomes was reported to be limited. Conclusions: Lower GFR and greater rates of decline in GFR post-transplantation are associated with an increased risk for graft loss (overall and death-censored) and all-cause mortality; however, the predictive utility of GFR alone in predicting long-term outcomes is limited.