Large-scale stress factors affecting coral reefs: open ocean sea surface temperature and surface seawater aragonite saturation over the next 400 years

One-third of the world's coral reefs have disappeared over the last 30 years, and a further third is under threat today from various stress factors. The main global stress factors on coral reefs have been identified as changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and changes in surface seawater aragonite saturation (Omega(arag)). Here, we use a climate model of intermediate complexity, which includes an ocean general circulation model and a fully coupled carbon cycle, in conjunction with present-day observations of inter-annual SST variability to investigate three IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCP 3PD, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5), and their impact on the environmental stressors of coral reefs related to open ocean SST and open ocean Omega(arag) over the next 400 years. Our simulations show that for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the threshold of 3.3 for zonal and annual mean Omega(arag) would be crossed in the first half of this century. By year 2030, 66-85% of the reef locations considered in this study would experience severe bleaching events at least once every 10 years. Regardless of the concentration pathway, virtually every reef considered in this study (> 97%) would experience severe thermal stress by year 2050. In all our simulations, changes in surface seawater aragonite saturation lead changes in temperatures.