期刊
COMPUTERS AND GEOTECHNICS
卷 49, 期 -, 页码 264-278出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.compgeo.2012.12.002
关键词
Geotechnical structures; Slope; Retaining wall; Reliability; Probability of failure; Correlation coefficient; Copula
类别
资金
- National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars [51225903]
- National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) [2011CB013506]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [51028901]
This paper aims to investigate the impact of copula selection on geotechnical reliability under incomplete probability information. The copula theory is introduced briefly. Thereafter, four copulas, namely Gaussian, Plackett, Frank, and No. 16 copulas, are selected to model the dependence structure between cohesion and friction angle. A copula-based approach is used to construct the joint probability density function of cohesion and friction angle with given marginal distributions and correlation coefficient. The reliability of an infinite slope and a retaining wall is presented to demonstrate the impact of copula selection on reliability. The results indicate that the probabilities of failure of geotechnical structures with given marginal distributions and correlation coefficient of shear strength parameters cannot be determined uniquely. The resulting probabilities of failure associated with different copulas can differ considerably. Such a difference increases with decreasing probability of failure. Significant difference in probabilities of failure could be observed for relatively small coefficients of variation of the shear strength parameters or a strong negative correlation between cohesion and friction angle. The Gaussian copula, often adopted out of expedience without proper validation, may not capture the dependence structure between cohesion and friction angle properly. Furthermore, the Gaussian copula may greatly underestimate the probability of failure for geotechnical structures. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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