期刊
COMPUTERS & OPERATIONS RESEARCH
卷 42, 期 -, 页码 49-57出版社
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.cor.2012.08.015
关键词
Emergency response; Fault tree analysis (FTA); Scenario probability estimation; Ranking
类别
资金
- National Science Fund for Excellent Innovation Research Group of China [71021061]
- National Science Foundation of China [90924016, 71001020, 71071029, 71101020, 71101021]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, NEU, China [N100406012, N110706001]
- Doctoral Scientific Research Foundation of Liaoning Science and Technology Committee [201120013]
Decision-making problems in emergency response are usually risky and uncertain due to the limited decision data and possible evolvement of emergency scenarios. This paper focuses on a risk decision-making problem in emergency response with several distinct characteristics including dynamic evolvement process of emergency, multiple scenarios, and impact of response actions on the emergency scenarios. A method based on Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is proposed to solve the problem. By analyzing the evolvement process of emergency, the Fault Tree (FT) is constructed to describe the logical relations among conditions and factors resulting in the evolvement of emergency. Given different feasible response actions, the probabilities of emergency scenarios are estimated by FTA. Furthermore, the overall ranking value of each action is calculated, and a ranking of feasible response actions is determined. Finally, a case study on H1N1 infectious diseases is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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