Empirical model for rapid macroseismic intensities prediction in Guadeloupe and Martinique

We describe a simple model for prediction of macroseismic intensities adapted to Guadeloupe and Martinique (Lesser Antilles), based on a combination of peak ground acceleration (PGA) predictive equation and a forward relation between acceleration and intensity. The PGA predictive equation is built from a 3-parameter functional form constrained by measurements from permanent accelerometer stations, mostly associated with Les Saintes crustal earthquake (21/11/2004, M-w = 6.3) and its many aftershocks. The forward intensity model is checked on a database of recent instrumental events of various origins with magnitudes 1.6 to 7.4, distances from 4 to 300 km, and observed intensities from I to VIII. Global sigma residual equals 0.8 in the MSK scale, suggesting a larger applicability range than the intermediate PGA predictive equation. The model is presently used by the French Lesser Antilles observatories to produce automatic reports for earthquakes potentially felt. (C) 2011 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.