期刊
JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
卷 72, 期 1-2, 页码 1-24出版社
SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
DOI: 10.1007/s00285-015-0873-4
关键词
Transmission model; Evolution; Cross-immunity; Multi-strain pathogens; Influenza
资金
- Medical Research Council [MR/K021524/1]
- RAPIDD program of the Science AMP
- Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health
- Medical Research Council [MR/K021524/1]
- RAPIDD program of the Science AMP
- Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health
- Medical Research Council [MR/K021524/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- MRC [MR/K021524/1] Funding Source: UKRI
Pathogens that consist of multiple antigenic variants are a serious public health concern. These infections, which include dengue virus, influenza and malaria, generate substantial morbidity and mortality. However, there are considerable theoretical challenges involved in modelling such infections. As well as describing the interaction between strains that occurs as a result cross-immunity and evolution, models must balance biological realism with mathematical and computational tractability. Here we review different modelling approaches, and suggest a number of biological problems that are potential candidates for study with these methods. We provide a comprehensive outline of the benefits and disadvantages of available frameworks, and describe what biological information is preserved and lost under different modelling assumptions. We also consider the emergence of new disease strains, and discuss how models of pathogens with multiple strains could be developed further in future. This includes extending the flexibility and biological realism of current approaches, as well as interface with data.
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