Timely Assessment of the Severity of the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic

During the 2009 influenza pandemic, weekly mortality data were analyzed to estimate excess mortality above a seasonally adjusted baseline modeled from prior years' data. Between the 1962-1963 and 2008-2009 seasons, among persons >= 25 years old, excess mortality had been substantially higher during influenza A(H3N2)-dominant years than during A(H1N1)-dominant years. Among persons >= 15 years of age, excess mortality was higher in the 1968-1969 influenza pandemic season than during any other season. During the 2009-2010 pandemic, among all age groups < 65 years old, excess mortality increased earlier than during any of the previous 47 seasons, eventually exceeding mortality in any prior non-pandemic season. In the >= 65-year-old age group, excess mortality remained relatively low, at rates typical of seasonal influenza A(H1N1) seasons. The model provided a timely assessment of severity during the 2009-2010 influenza pandemic, showing that, compared with prior seasons, mortality was relatively high among persons < 65 years old and relatively low among those >= 65 years old.