Natural History of Compensated Hepatitis C Virus-Related Cirrhosis in HIV-Infected Patients

Objective. To provide information about the incidence and predictors of liver decompensation and death due to liver failure in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients with compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis. Methods. Prospective cohort study of 154 HIV-HCV-coinfected patients with a new diagnosis of Child-Pugh-Turcotte (CPT) class A compensated cirrhosis. We evaluated time from diagnosis to the first liver decompensation and death from liver disease, as well as predictors of these outcomes. Results. Thirty-six patients (23.4%) developed liver decompensation. The incidence of liver decompensation was 6.40 cases per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.18-9.38 cases per 100 person-years). Factors independently associated with liver decompensation were lack of HCV therapy (hazard ratio [HR], 3.38; 95% CI, 1.09-10.53; P = .035), baseline CD4 cell counts <= 300 cells/mm(3) (HR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.14-5.04; P=021), CPT score 6 versus 5 (HR, 3.33; 95% CI, 1.39-7.69; P=0.007), and a diagnosis of cirrhosis based on data other than biopsy or transient elastography (HR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.05-4.16; P = .036). Fifteen patients (9.7%) died; 11 (73%) of these 15 died from liver disease (mortality due to liver failure, 2.44 deaths per 100 person-years; 95% CI, 1.21-4.36 deaths per 100 person-years). Hepatic encephalopathy as the first liver decompensation (HR, 20.67; 95% CI, 2.71-157.57; P = .003), baseline CD4 count <= 300/mm(3) (HR, 0.24; 95% CI, 0.07-0.78; Pp. 017), and baseline CPT score 6 (HR, 4.50; 95% CI, 1.63-12.37; Pp. 004) were independently associated with liver-related death. Conclusions. The incidence of clinical liver events in HIV-HCV-coinfected patients with CPT class A compensated cirrhosis is close to that previously reported in HCV-monoinfected patients. Lower baseline CD4 cell counts, lack of therapy against HCV, and higher CPT score are the factors related to the occurrence of clinical liver events. Minimal changes in CPT score have strong impact in the prognosis of this population.