Climate-induced primary productivity change and fishing impacts on the Central North Pacific ecosystem and Hawaii-based pelagic longline fishery

An existing Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model for the Central North Pacific was updated and modified to focus on the area used by the Hawaii-based pelagic longline fishery. The EwE model was combined with output from a coupled NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory climate and biogeochemical model to investigate the likely ecosystem impacts of fishing and climate-induced primary productivity changes. Four simulations were conducted based on 2 fishing effort and climate scenarios from 2010 to 2100. Modeled small and large phytoplankton biomass decreased by 10 % and 20 % respectively, resulting in a 10 % decline in the total biomass of all higher trophic level groups combined. Climate impacts also affected the Hawaii longline fishery, with a 25-29 % reduction in modeled target species yield. Climate impacts on the ecosystem and the fishery were partially mitigated by a drop in fishing effort. Scenarios with a 50 % reduction in fishing effort partially restored longline target species yield to current levels, and decreased longline nontarget species yield. These model results suggest that a further reduction in fishery landings mortality over time than the 2010 level may be necessary to mitigate climate impacts and help sustain yields of commercially preferred fish species targeted by the Hawaii longline fishery through the 21st century.