期刊
CLIMATIC CHANGE
卷 113, 期 3-4, 页码 1065-1079出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0093-x
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资金
- NERC [earth010005, earth010002] Funding Source: UKRI
- Natural Environment Research Council [earth010002, earth010005] Funding Source: researchfish
Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 re-analysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations.
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