Potential effects of climatic change on the distribution of Tetraclinis articulata, an endemic tree from arid Mediterranean ecosystems

South-eastern Spain is a key area for assessing the effects of climate change on biodiversity since it presents an ecotone between the Mediterranean biome and the subtropical shrublands of arid lands. The forests of Tetraclinis articulata constitutes an especially relevant case. A species distribution model has been developed, regionalised climate change scenarios for South-eastern Spain were generated and expected changes in the suitability area of this species were estimated under B2 and A2 SRES scenarios for the time slice 2020-2050. Moreover, land use in the present and future potential habitat has been analysed. The high sensitivity of T. articulata is expressed not only as effects of climate change in the near future when compared to the present-day situation but also in the remarkable differences under scenarios B2 and A2. Under scenario B2 the suitable area for T. articulata would expand six-fold whereas under A2 the potential habitat would disappear from its present-day distribution and would move to a small area in the interior mountains. Under scenario B2 the future potential habitat in the coastal location would include enough area of shrublands, the main effective habitat of the species. Moreover, the present and future potential habitat partially overlaps, which facilitates the species migration. On the contrary, in the interior potential habitat the land use is less favourable for the effective habitat, the actual and future potential habitat do not overlap and the low dispersal capabilities of the species prevents natural migration to the interior to be expected.