Counting only the hits? The risk of underestimating the costs of stringent climate policy

This paper warns against the risk of underestimating the costs-and the uncertainty about the costs-of achieving stringent stabilization targets. We argue that a straightforward review of integrated assessment models results produces biased estimates for the more ambitious climate objectives such as those compatible with the 2A degrees C of the European Union and the G8. The magnitude and range of estimates are significantly reduced because only the most optimistic results are reported for such targets. We suggest a procedure that addresses this partiality. The results show highly variable costs for the most ambitious scenarios.