期刊
CLIMATIC CHANGE
卷 98, 期 3-4, 页码 493-508出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9742-8
关键词
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资金
- EC
- MMA/BIRD/GEF/CNPq
- IAI [IAI CRN055-PROSUR]
- Ministry of Science and Technology MCT
- UK Global Opportunity Fund
- University of Buenos Aires [X170, BID 1728/OC-AR-PICT 38273]
- Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy
In this study we examine the performance of eight of the IPCC AR4 global coupled climate models used in the WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset, as well as their ensemble mean, in simulating annual indices of extreme temperature and precipitation climate events in South America. In this first part we focus on comparing observed and modeled mean values and interannual variability. Two extreme temperature indices based on minimum temperature (warm nights and frost days) and three indices of extreme precipitation (R95t, R10 and consecutive dry days), obtained both from meteorological stations during 1961-2000 and model outputs, were compared. The number of warm nights are better represented by models than the FD. The interannual variability pattern is also in good agreement with the observed values. For precipitation, the index that is best represented by the models is the R95t, which relates the extreme precipitation to local climate. The maximum of dryness observed over the central Argentinian Andes or the extensive dry season of the Amazon region could not be represented by any model.
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