期刊
CLIMATE DYNAMICS
卷 45, 期 7-8, 页码 2013-2031出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2452-6
关键词
Model evaluation; Regional climate models; China; Climatology and extremes
资金
- National Basic Research Program of China [2012CB955401]
- Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry [GYHY201306026]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41320104007]
- 'the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Chang'
- KLOE Open Fund [XJDX0201-2012-04]
China faces an increasing challenge in water resources in the coming decades; thus high-confidence climate projection is of particular importance for the country's future. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of a long high-resolution continuous simulation over China based on multiple observations and the corresponding historical simulation. The simulation is completed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The results show that both MIROC5 and WRF can capture the distribution and variability of temperature over China, whereas WRF shows improvements, particularly for simulation of regional features. Compared with MIROC5, WRF can reproduce the spatial distribution, annual cycle, probability distribution, and seasonal evolution of the precipitation over mainland China and the sub-regions with better performance. The trend is of fundamental importance in the future projection estimations, and WRF shows better skill in simulating the annual mean precipitation trend. However, there is overestimation of precipitation in Southeast China while negative one in the middle latitude of China in WRF simulation, which can be traced back to model bias in atmospheric circulation and water vapor transportation in these regions. Several extreme climate indices are selected to further assess the model's performance in simulating climate extremes, WRF can well reproduce the main features with better model skill compared with MIROC5. The better performance of WRF indicates the necessity of the dynamical downscaling technique and the robustness of regional climate simulation in future regional climate projection over China.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据