Winter synoptic-scale variability over the Mediterranean Basin under future climate conditions as simulated by the ECHAM5

Changes of the winter climate in the Mediterranean Basin (MB) for future A2 conditions are investigated for the period 2071-2100 and compared with the control period 1961-1990. The analysis is based on time-slice simulations of the latest version of the ECHAM model. First, the control simulation is evaluated with reanalysis data. The emphasis is given to synoptic and large-scale features and their variability in the MB. The model is found to be capable of reproducing the main features of the MB and southern Europe in the winter season. Second, the A2 simulation is compared with the control simulation, revealing considerable changes of the synoptic variability. Focusing on the synoptic spatio-temporal scale aims to unfold the dynamic background of the climatic changes. The Mediterranean cyclones, which are individually detected and tracked, decrease by 10% in the Western Mediterranean (WM) whereas no significant change is found in the Eastern Mediterranean. The cyclone intensity is slightly reduced in the entire region. To understand these changes, the underlying dynamical background is analyzed. It is found that changes in baroclinicity, static stability, transformation from eddy kinetic energy to kinetic energy of the mean flow and stationary wave activity are significant in particular in the WM and the coastline of North Africa. The reduction of cyclonic activity severely impacts the precipitation mainly in the southern part of the WM.