Growth-Differentiation Factor-15 Is a Robust, Independent Predictor of 11-Year Mortality Risk in Community-Dwelling Older Adults The Rancho Bernardo Study

Background-Growth-differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) is emerging as a prognostic marker in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD), but its prognostic value in community-dwelling adults has not been reported. We hypothesized that GDF-15 would add incremental power for prediction of mortality in a population of community-dwelling older adults without known heart disease. Methods and Results-We measured plasma GDF-15, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and C-reactive protein levels in 1391 Rancho Bernardo Study participants, mean age 70 years, with no history of CVD and followed them for a mean of 11 years. In models adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors, GDF-15 was a robust predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular, and noncardiovascular mortality. GDF-15 was a stronger predictor of all-cause mortality than either NT-proBNP or C-reactive protein (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] per SD log(10) units 1.5 [1.3 to 1.8], P<0.0001 for GDF-15 versus 1.3 [1.2 to 1.5], P<0.0001 for NT-proBNP; C-reactive protein was not a significant predictor). Among biomarkers considered, only GDF-15 predicted noncardiovascular death (hazard ratio 1.6 [1.4 to 2.0], P<0.0001). Growth differentiation factor-15 improved discrimination and modestly but significantly improved reclassification for all-cause and noncardiovascular mortality with borderline improvement for cardiovascular mortality; NT-proBNP significantly improved reclassification for all-cause and for cardiovascular mortality; C-reactive protein did not improve reclassification for any end point tested. Participants in the highest quartile of both GDF-15 and NT-proBNP had an increased risk of death compared with participants with only NT-proBNP elevated (hazard ratio 1.5 [1.1 to 2.0], P<0.01). Conclusions-Growth differentiation factor-15 is a strong predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular, and noncardiovascular mortality in community-dwelling older individuals, adding incremental value to traditional risk factors and to NT-proBNP and C-reactive protein levels. (Circulation. 2011;123:2101-2110.)