Effects of spatio-temporal and environmental factors on distribution and abundance of wintering anchovy Engraulis japonicus in central and southern Yellow Sea

We investigated the spatio-temporal and environmental factors that affect the distribution and abundance of wintering anchovy and quantifies the influences of these factors. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were developed to examine the variation in species distribution and abundance with a set of spatiotemporal and oceanographic factors, using data collected by bottom trawl surveys and remote sensing in the central and southern Yellow Sea during 2000-2011. The final model accounted for 28.21% and 41.03% of the variance in anchovy distribution and abundance, respectively. The results of a two-step GAM showed that hour, longitude, latitude, temperature gradient (TGR), and chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentration best explained the anchovy distribution (presence/absence) and that a model including year, longitude, latitude, depth, sea surface temperature (SST), and TGR best described anchovy abundance (given presence). Longitude and latitude were the most important factors affecting both distribution and abundance, but the area of high abundance tended to be east and south of the area where anchovy were most likely to be present. Hour had a significant effect on distribution, but year was more important for anchovy abundance, indicating that the anchovy catch ratio varied across the day but abundance had an apparent interannual variation. With respect to environmental factors, TGR and Chl-a concentration had effects on distribution, while depth, SST, and TGR affected abundance. Changes in SST between two successive years or between any year and the 2000-2011 mean were not associated with changes in anchovy distribution or abundance. This finding indicated that short- and long-term water temperature changes during 2000-2011 were not of sufficient magnitude to give rise to variation in wintering anchovy distribution or abundance in the study area. The results of this study have important implications for fisheries management.