Driving mechanism of cultivated land transition in Yantai Proper, Shandong Province, China

Cultivated land transition and its driving mechanism are the hotspots among studies on land use change. In this study, we constructed a framework to study the driving mechanism of cultivated land transition from the quantitative perspective. Based on the vector data of land use in 1990, 2000 and 2009 of Yantai Proper, Shandong Province China, 11 explanatory variables were chosen from two aspects: the elevation, slope, cost distance to major water area and cost distance to minor water area, which presented physical factors; cost distance to district center, cost distance to town center, cost distance to city expansion center, cost distance to major roads, cost distance to city roads, cost distance to county roads and cost distance to rural roads, which presented the socio-economic factors. Combined with spatial analysis tools and Logistic regression analysis model, we construct Logistic regression analyses with four objectives that were urban construction land, rural residential land, orchard and other lands. The results show that, cost distance to district center, cost distance to town center, cost distance to city expansion center and cost distance to city roads are the significant explanatory variables for the transition of cultivated land into urban construction land. The main explained factors on the transition of cultivated land into rural residential land are slope, cost distance to town center, cost distance to county roads and cost distance to rural roads. Slope, cost distance to minor water area, cost distance to town center, cost distance to county roads and cost distance to rural roads are the significant explanatory variables for the transition of cultivated land into orchard land. Elevation, slope, cost distance to major water area and cost distance to minor water area are the main explanatory variables on the transition of cultivated land into other land uses.