Learning from variety and competition between technological options for generating photovoltaic electricity

PV technology is of major interest for the energy sector because it offers the possibility of generating renewable electricity, using a resource that is widely available throughout the world, and without producing noticeable environmental externalities. The performance of the technology has progressed significantly over the last 20 years, thanks to learning effects, which have enabled PV diffusion to be extended beyond the initial niche markets. If this learning process can be maintained, PV may become an efficient technology for electricity generation and contribute to a sustainable world energy supply. Different technologies are competing in the production of PV cells. This paper analyses the mechanisms whereby one technology (crystalline silicon) has become established in a dominant position by using a knowledge base shared with the electronic components industry. The increasing diffusion of PV applications in new market segments as a result of public policies is then discussed, along with the resulting reinforcing mechanisms in favor of silicon technology. Given the limited progress margins remaining on this technological trajectory, a discussion is finally presented of new, more promising PV technologies and their possibilities for overcoming this lock-in situation and extending the current PV learning process. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc.