Relationship between settlement of southern rock lobster pueruli, Jasus edwardsii, and recruitment to the fishery in Tasmania, Australia

Puerulus catches on artificial collectors were measured monthly at four sites around Tasmania from 1991 to April 2000, with the aim of predicting future changes in recruitment to the fishery. Support for the potential of catch-rate prediction in Tasmania was provided at the two sites that have overlap of several years between indices of puerulus settlement and indices of the abundance of recruits to the fishery. At Bicheno, on the northeast coast, correlations between annual puerulus index and commercial catch rates were highly significant, with a lag of 5 years (P < 0.01). Similar interannual trends in puerulus index and estimates from a stock-assessment model of the biomass of recruits to the fishery provided additional support for a link with puerulus index. A 5-fold interannual variation in puerulus index detected at Bicheno, with a peak in 1995, was preceded by 3 years of relatively low puerulus catch. The peak in puerulus index appears to lead to an increase in the abundance of sublegal males in research sampling 3 years later. Correlation between annual measures of puerulus index and catch rate also appeared significant at King Island (P = 0.06) although data at this site had less contrast.