Assessment and prediction of tropospheric ozone concentration levels using artificial neural networks

This work deals specifically with the use of a neural network for ozone modelling in the lower atmosphere. The development of a neural network model is presented to predict the tropospheric (surface or ground) ozone concentrations as a function of meteorological conditions and various air quality parameters. The development of the model was based on the realization that the prediction of ozone from a theoretical basis (i.e. detailed atmospheric diffusion model) is difficult. In contrast, neural networks are useful for modelling because of their ability to be trained using historical data and because of their capability for modelling highly non-linear relationships. The network was trained using summer meteorological and air quality data when the ozone concentrations are the highest. The data were collected from an urban atmosphere, The site was selected to represent a typical residential area with high traffic influences. Three neural network models were developed. The main emphasis of the first model has been placed on studying the factors that control the ozone concentrations during a 24-hour period (daylight and night hours were included). The second model was developed to study the factors that regulate the ozone concentrations during daylight hours at which higher concentrations of ozone were recorded. The third model was developed to predict daily maximum ozone levels. The predictions of the models were found to be consistent With observations. A partitioning method of the connection weights of the network was used to study the relative percent contribution of each of the input variables. The contribution of meteorology on the ozone concentration variation was found to fall within the range 33.15-40.64%. It was also found that nitrogen oxide, sulfur dioxide, relative humidity, non-methane hydrocarbon and nitrogen dioxide have the most effect on the predicted ozone concentrations. In addition, temperature played an important role while solar radiation had a lower effect than expected. The results of this study indicate that the artificial neural network (ANN) is a promising method for air pollution modelling. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.