Out of step, out of office: Electoral accountability and house members' voting

Does a typical House member need to worry about the electoral ramifications of his roll-calldecisions? We investigate the relationship between incumbents' electoral performance and roll-call support for their party-controlling for district ideology, challenger quality, and campaign spending, among other factors-through a series of tests of the 1956-1996 elections. The tests produce three key findings indicating that members are indeed accountable for their legislative voting. First, in each election, an incumbent receives a lower vote share the more he supports his party. Second, this effect is comparable in size to that of other widely recognized electoral determinants. Third, a member's probability of retaining office decreases as he offers increased support for his party, and this relationship holds for not only marginal, but also safe members.