Simulation of eutrophication and associated occurrence of hypoxic and anoxic condition in a coastal bay in Japan

A probabilistic method of calculating the occurrence of oxygen-depleted water within a combined hydrothermal and water quality model was presented in this paper to investigate the environmental impact of eutrophication on the living resources. The method was applied to an eutrophicated shallow coastal bay in western Japan, where the occurrence of red tides at the water surface and the onset of bottom hypoxic waters are observed every summer. Both meteorology and freshwater inflow contribute to the development of stratification of the bay, thus limiting the dissolved oxygen supply to bottom waters. The resulting hydrodynamics enhances the development of oxygen-depleted bottom waters by transporting organic matter produced by algal blooms to the inner bay, where it decomposes and exerts high SOD. During August, about 60% of the inner bay is hypoxic for prolonged durations and as a result most of the benthic biota and fish die. The method used here is a very useful and informative way to evaluate the spatial and temporal damage and severity caused by hypoxia on living resources. Moreover, the model results agreed very well with the observed hydrodynamics, thermal structure and water quality data of the stratified bay. The model can be used for other lakes and bays where knowledge of temperature and density stratification is important for assessing water quality. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.