Toward a scenario analysis framework for energy footprints

There has been much improvement in calculation of the ecological footprint (EF) since 1996, when Wackernagel and Rees initially suggested it as a sustainable development index to evaluate human dependence on ecosystems in terms of land and water areas. However, despite the improvements the EF remains a static index, revealing only the current reality, so that it is criticized for its lack of use in policy formulation. This criticism is more concerned with the energy footprint because it dominates the estimated EF in many case studies, and its size would change almost simultaneously when alternative energy policies are implemented. One main reason for this deficiency is that the original calculation method does not explicitly take into account the linkages among the final consumption of goods and services, final energy consumption, and primary energy requirements. However, these linkages may contribute to scenarios and simulation of policy instruments for reducing energy footprints. This paper proposes a calculation framework to include the concerned linkages in order to: (1) estimate energy footprints according to the primary energies embodied in the goods and services consumed by a defined human population, and (2) develop scenarios and simulation of policy instruments for reducing energy footprints. This framework is then applied to Taiwan to illustrate how it works and what needs to be improved in future studies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.