Probabilistic analysis of timber drying schedules

Timber drying schedules are primarily chosen to achieve a certain final moisture content accompanied by a minimum amount of board degrade. However the schedule adopted also influences the dispersion in moisture content between boards at the end of drying. A simple double set point schedule consisting of two distinct and sequential equilibrium moisture contents is selected to illustrate the concept. Theoretical expressions that predict mean and standard deviation in board moisture content vs. time are developed. The predictions of these equations are compared with the output of a Monte Carlo model of timber drying and with experimental measurements from a laboratory kiln. The advantages of a double set point over a single set point schedule are explained and an optimum double set point schedule is determined. The behavior of a commercial drying schedule is analyzed and its performance with respect to the optimum schedule is quantified. Finally some inherent characteristics of the variability in timber drying systems are outlined.