An assessment of predictive forecasting of Juniperus ashei pollen movement in the Southern Great Plains, USA

Juniperus ashei pollen, a significant aeroallergen, has been recorded during December and January in Tulsa, Oklahoma, over the past 20 years. The nearest upwind source for this pollen is populations growing in southern Oklahoma and central Texas, at distances of 200 km and 600 km respectively. Long-distance dispersal of J. ashei pollen into the Tulsa area shows a strong correlation with the trajectories of wind blowing across southern populations before traveling north towards eastern Oklahoma. The strong tie between climatic conditions and the occurrence of this aeroallergen within the Tulsa, Oklahoma, atmosphere provided a unique opportunity to forecast the dispersal, entrainment, and downwind deposition of this significant aeroallergen. Forecasts of long-distance J. ashei pollen dispersal began during the winter of 1998/1999. Each forecast uses defined climatic parameters to signal pollination at each source site. Coupled to these estimates of pollen release, forecast weather conditions and modeled wind trajectories are used to determine the threat of dispersal to downwind communities. The accuracy of these forecasts was determined by comparing the forecast 'threat' to aerobiological records for the same period collected in the 'Tulsa region'. Analysis of the two seasons revealed only a single occurrence of 'high' or 'very high' pollen concentrations in Tulsa not directly linked to 'moderate' or 'severe' forecast threats from the southern source areas.