Effects of human behavior on aggregate carbon intensity of personal transportation: comparison of 10 OECD countries for the period 1970-1993

Since 1970, carbon emissions from personal transportation have increased in every OECD country. While declines in fuel intensity moderated growth in aggregate carbon measures, behavioral effects, such as modal shifts or declining load factors, substantially offset changes in fuel intensity when measures of carbon intensity are decomposed. In a retrospective analysis of emission trends from 1970 to 1993, the influence of fuel prices and growth in per capita income on increases in fuel consumption, mode- and fuel-switching, and load or occupancy of personal transportation are examined. Analysis of past trends suggest that future policies focusing only on fuel intensity may be insufficient to lead to continuing reductions in total carbon emissions. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.