Sensory shelf-life estimation of alfajor by survival analysis

Survival analysis methodology was used to estimate the shelf life of alfajor (a chocolate-coated individually wrapped cake) at 20 and 35C by using results obtained from consumers when asked if they would accept or reject samples with different storage times. Sensory acceptability (measured by consumers), off-flavor (measured by a trained panel) and moisture content were linearly related to time. These correlations were used to estimate values at the shelf-life times calculated for 25 and 50% rejection probability. Survival analysis provided the following shelf-life estimation: 74 days at 20C and 33 days at 35C for a 25% of rejection, 87 days at 20C and 39 days at 35C for a 50% of rejection. An alfajor stored at 20C having an acceptability value below 4.9 (1-9 hedonic scale) and off-flavor intensity above 5.3 (0-10 scale) would be rejected by 25% of the consumers. Chemical data were not good shelf-life predictors.