4.6 Article

Effects of stochastic parametrizations in the Lorenz '96 system

期刊

出版社

ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1256/qj.04.03

关键词

ensemble prediction; probability forecasting; spread-skill relationship

向作者/读者索取更多资源

Stochastic parametrization of the effects of unresolved variables is studied in the context of the Lorenz '96 system. These parametrizations are found to produce clear improvements in correspondence between the model and 'true' climatologies; they similarly provide clear improvements in all ensemble forecast verification measures investigated, including accuracy of ensemble means and ensemble probability estimation, and including measures operating on both scalar (each resolved forecast variable evaluated individually) and vector (all forecast variables evaluated simultaneously) predictands. Scalar accuracy measures for non-ensemble (i.e. single integration) forecasts are, however, degraded. The results depend very strongly on both the amplitude (standard deviation) and time-scale of the stochastic forcing, but only weakly on its spatial scale. In general there seems not to be a single clear optimum combination of time-scale and amplitude, but rather there exists a range of combinations producing similar results.

作者

我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。

评论

主要评分

4.6
评分不足

次要评分

新颖性
-
重要性
-
科学严谨性
-
评价这篇论文

推荐

暂无数据
暂无数据