期刊
SIAM JOURNAL ON APPLIED MATHEMATICS
卷 65, 期 3, 页码 964-982出版社
SIAM PUBLICATIONS
DOI: 10.1137/S003613990343882X
关键词
influenza; multiple strains; cross-immunity; isolation; stability; bifurcation; oscillations; coexistence
The time evolution of the influenza A virus is linked to a nonfixed landscape driven by interactions between hosts and competing influenza strains. Herd-immunity, cross-immunity, and age-structure are among the factors that have been shown to support strain coexistence and/or disease oscillations. In this study, we put two influenza strains under various levels of ( interference) competition. We establish that cross-immunity and host isolation lead to periodic epidemic outbreaks ( sustained oscillations) in this multistrain system. We compute the isolation reproductive number for each strain (R-i) independently, as well as for the full system (R-q), and show that when R-q < 1, both strains die out. Subthreshold coexistence driven by cross-immunity is possible even when the isolation reproductive number of one strain is below 1. Conditions that guarantee a winning type or coexistence are established in general. Oscillatory coexistence is established via Hopf bifurcation theory and confirmed via numerical simulations.
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