Modeling spatial patterns of recreational boaters: Vessel, behavioral, and geographic considerations

A regression-based framework for modeling recreational boating patterns and estimating preferred on-water destinations was introduced. A survey of 500 boaters provided model input regarding vessel, behavioral, and geographic characteristics. This information was used to construct a travel network within a Geographic Information System to identify major network intersections ( pivots) and to calculate the distance traveled along network segments between intersections, as derived model input. Model estimates of preferred destinations and use intensity were compared to mail survey results for validation. The average error between reported and estimated boating destinations was 4.3 miles for a regional application and 3.0 miles for a sub-regional application. In addition to vessel and behavioral considerations, the results highlighted the significance of geographic and network variables in modeling the spatial patterns of recreational boaters and destination choice.