Climate change: A looming challenge for fisheries management in southern Africa

It is now widely accepted that the earth's climate is changing under the influence of anthropogenic activities. A number of key changes in the earths atmosphere and ocean have already been detected (including increasing global surface temperature, rising sea levels, increases in incident UV radiation, changes in average annual precipitation, and increases in the variability and intensity of extreme weather events, among others), while speculation regarding future changes is rife. The implications of global climate change for fish stocks and fisheries is of concern to many scientists, but little effort has been made to incorporate observed changes or event such thinking into management models and paradigms. This paper summarises available evidence linking the production of key greenhouse gases with observed and future projected changes in the earth's climate, specifically in respect of a number of key atmospheric and oceanographic parameters likely to affect fish stocks in South Africa (temperature, pressure/wind fields, CO2 concentration, rainfall, mean sea level and UV radiation). It also explores likely effects of these changes on fish stocks and key fishery sectors. In addition, it highlights a number of positive steps that be taken by management authorities to ensure that they and the fishing communities for which they are responsible are in the best possible position to deal with the effects of changing global climate as they become manifest. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.