On causation in demography: Issues and illustrations

This essay addresses the issue of causation in demography. The focus is on change in aggregate demographic phenomena through time. Causal linkage is considered in relation both to mechanical demographic processes and to more substantive causes of population change, such as social, economic, political, and historical influences. The intervention framework is too rarely applicable to be useful as a general solution to causal inference in demography. Examples of demographic change are examined, ranging from relatively straightforward instances of causation to more complex cases. Ten criteria are proposed that are intended to assist in the evaluation of causation in the context of demographic change.