4.2 Article

Coupling of two SIR epidemic models with variable susceptibilities and infectivities

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JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY
卷 44, 期 1, 页码 41-57

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APPLIED PROBABILITY TRUST
DOI: 10.1239/jap/1175267162

关键词

SIR epidemic; random graph; branching process; central limit theorem; coupling

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The variable generalised stochastic epidemic model, which allows for variability in both the susceptibilities and infectivities of individuals, is analysed. A very different epidemic model which exhibits variable susceptibility and infectivity is the random-graph epidemic model. A suitable coupling of the two epidemic models is derived which enables us to show that, whilst the epidemics are very different in appearance, they have the same asymptotic final size distribution. The coupling provides a novel approach to studying random-graph epidemic models.

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