期刊
JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY
卷 44, 期 1, 页码 41-57出版社
APPLIED PROBABILITY TRUST
DOI: 10.1239/jap/1175267162
关键词
SIR epidemic; random graph; branching process; central limit theorem; coupling
The variable generalised stochastic epidemic model, which allows for variability in both the susceptibilities and infectivities of individuals, is analysed. A very different epidemic model which exhibits variable susceptibility and infectivity is the random-graph epidemic model. A suitable coupling of the two epidemic models is derived which enables us to show that, whilst the epidemics are very different in appearance, they have the same asymptotic final size distribution. The coupling provides a novel approach to studying random-graph epidemic models.
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