Intra-abdominal fat accumulation predicts the development of the metabolic syndrome in non-diabetic Japanese-Americans

Aims/hypothesis Intra-abdominal fat (IAF) is an important risk factor for CHD and type 2 diabetes, and in cross-sectional studies is associated with the metabolic syndrome (MetS). Our aim was to determine whether IAF accumulation predicts the future development of MetS in non-diabetic Japanese-Americans. Subjects and methods We conducted a prospective study of 457 Japanese-American men and women (mean +/- SD: age 51.5 +/- 12.0 years, BMI 23.9 +/- 3.1 kg/m(2)) without diabetes or MetS at baseline. Of these, 408 completed a 5-year follow-up and 366 completed a 10-year follow-up. BMI, waist circumference, IAF and subcutaneous fat (SCF) areas by computed tomography, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, insulin, triacylglycerol and HDL-cholesterol were measured at baseline and at 5- and 10-year follow-up. MetS was defined using National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. Results Incidence of MetS was 15.3% at 5 years and 17.8% at 10 years. A change of 1 SD in IAF area was associated with a 2.1-fold increase in the odds of MetS at 10 years (odds ratio = 2.08, 95% CI 1.41-3.07) after adjusting for age, sex, baseline IAF and the presence of each individual MetS criteria at baseline. This association was independent of changes in fasting insulin and SCF areas. Conclusion We conclude that IAF accumulation over time independently predicts the development of MetS and thus may play an important role in the development of MetS in Japanese-Americans.