The combined impact on the flooding in Vietnam's Mekong River delta of local man-made structures, sea level rise, and dams upstream in the river catchment

The Mekong River delta plays an important role in the Vietnamese economy and it has been severely impacted during this century by a series of unusually large floods. In the dry season the delta is also impacted by salinity intrusion and tides. These effects have caused severe human hardship. To mitigate these impacts, a large number of engineering structures, primarily dykes and weirs, have been built in the delta in recent years and are still being built, mainly to control floods and saltwater intrusion. These control measures are still being upgraded. A GIS-linked numerical model shows that the flood levels in the delta depend on the combined impacts of high river flows in the Mekong River, storm surges, sea level rise, and the likely, future siltation of the Mekong Estuary resulting from the construction of dams in China as well as many other dams proposed throughout the remaining river catchment. The model suggests that the engineering structures in the delta increase the flow velocities in the rivers and canals, increasing bank erosion, and cause the water to be deeper in the rivers and canals. This increases flooding in the non-protected areas of the delta and increases the risk of catastrophic failure of the dykes in the protected areas. The model also predicts that a sea level rise induced by global warming will enhance flooding in the Mekong River delta in Vietnam, and that flooding may worsen in the long term as a result of estuarine siltation resulting from the construction of dams. At the scale of the Mekong River basin, a multinational water resources management plan is needed that includes the hydrological needs of the delta. At the scale of the delta, a compromise is needed between allowing some flooding necessary for agriculture and preventing catastrophic flooding to alleviate human suffering. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.