期刊
CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH
卷 44, 期 12, 页码 1555-1565出版社
CANADIAN SCIENCE PUBLISHING, NRC RESEARCH PRESS
DOI: 10.1139/cjfr-2014-0282
关键词
climate change; frost damage; phenology; process-based modeling; geographical distribution; comparative analysis; trees; North America
类别
资金
- Bourse de Docteur Ingenieur du Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
- Marie-Curie Outgoing International Fellowship (European Commission's FP6, PHENO-RANGE-EDGE project) [39473]
- Institut Francais de la Biocliversite
- program Gestion et Impact du Changement Climatique of the French Ministry of Ecology and Sustainable Development
In temperate zones, trees tend to unfold their leaves earlier due to climate warming. However, changes in the timing of the bud development also affect the dynamics of the cold-hardening process, which may increase frost injuries endured by trees because new leaves unfold at a period when frost events can still occur. This possible increase in frost damage in response to climate change is known as the frost-damage hypothesis. In this study, we have tested this hypothesis by forcing a process-based frost-injury model with process-based phenological models for 22 North American species with two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change storylines. Using a simplified parameterization of the frost-injury model, we found that risk of frost injury changed with climate change for all species. In fact, frost injury decreased for the vast majority of the species, but this trend varied across species and throughout each species' distribution. We further explored the variability of response among species using their phenological and geographic characteristics. The interspecific trends depicted here show what could be the implications of climate change on the ecophysiology of boreal and temperate trees and highlight the importance of process-based models in studying the complexity of long-term impacts of climate change on species biology.
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