Temporal trends in probabilistic maturation reaction norms and growth of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) on the Icelandic shelf

Decreasing temporal trends in probabilistic maturation reaction norm (PMRN) midpoints, symptomatic of earlier maturation despite environmentally induced variation in growth, have been observed in many exploited fish stocks. Here, we studied the growth and maturation trends of female and male Icelandic cod (Gadus morhua) by estimating PMRN midpoints for cohorts 1964-1999 and found evidence that a shift towards maturation at smaller sizes and Younger ages has occurred independently of changes in growth, condition, and temperature. Weighting the data with regional survey abundance estimates to account for spatial heterogeneity in maturity status and sampling intensity did not qualitatively affect the temporal trends. Length-at-age also decreased through the study period, which, through simulations, Could be attributed to the energetic costs of earlier maturity at maturing age groups but not at Younger ages. These findings Support the hypothesis that such changes in maturation schedules are not caused by environmental factors alone but could also reflect a genetic change, potentially in response to intensive fishing.