A dynamic model of the Bay of Biscay pelagic fleet simulating fishing trip choice: the response to the closure of the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) fishery in 2005

The scope of this paper is to describe, evaluate, and forecast fishing trip choices of the Bay of Biscay pelagic fleet using random utility modeling (RUM). First, alternative fishing trip choices of this fleet were identified using multivariate statistical methods based on species landings weighted by value and defined as distinct fishing activity or fisheries (termed metiers). A RUM was specified, which included trip components as attributes during the period 20012004 ( a lagged percentage of the value per unit of effort of the main species caught, total value per unit of effort, and inertia in terms of changes from one metier to another). For the main metiers, the proportion of correct effort allocation is 90% during the calibration period of 2001-2004. The results from the RUM are used to parameterize a simulation model of trip choice. The model is used to predict trip choices in 2005, throughout most of which fishing was constrained by the closure of the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) fishery. Simulation results are compared with observed trip choices following the fishing ban: 80% of observed trip choices are correctly predicted by the model. The capacity of the behavioral model to predict responses to the closure is then discussed.