Changes to climate and visitor behaviour: Implications for vulnerable landscapes in the north west region of England

Many high quality landscapes can be found in the North West region of England, including those of international significance such as the Lake District National Park. These natural assets are recognised by the regional tourism strategy as particularly important, as they are a major determinant for visitors within, and to, the region. However, with the strategy geared towards increasing visitor numbers, there is a substantial challenge to be faced in the future: how to maintain the quality of an environment that is under combined pressure from both visitor numbers and climate change? Focusing on two landscape types considered to be the most vulnerable to a changing climate, the coastal zone and the uplands, this paper presents 'downscaled' climate change scenarios, and provides an assessment of how a combination of climate and non-climate factors are likely to impact these vulnerable landscapes in the future. The case study analysis is largely drawn from a series of 'risk' workshops held with key regional stakeholders.