Urban Growth Determinants in China

This article examines the determinants of Chinese city population growth in the 1990s. In this decade, the Chinese government continued to loosen the restriction on rural/urban migration. The consequent rural exodus was accompanied by rapid urban population growth. However, cities of different sizes did not grow at the same rate. Urban literature suggests that city-population growth is determined by some urban characteristics, mainly initial size, economic performance, and geographical factors. Using panel data of Chinese prefecture- and province-level cities over the period 1990-2000, we examine how the subsequent population growth of cities is determined by their initial characteristics. Empirical results show that initial size, neighbor effect, and economic performance are the main factors affecting city population growth. Smaller cities grow faster than larger cities; gross domestic product per capita level and the degree of openness both exert a positive effect on growth rate. Finally, neighbors' impact on city growth has a quadratic shape.