期刊
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
卷 95, 期 2, 页码 243-267出版社
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1
关键词
-
资金
- NASA
- NSF
- NOAA
- DOE
- AIMES
- Office of Science (BER)
- U.S. Department of Energy
- National Science Foundation
- NOAA MAPP program
- NOAA CPO program
- DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme [GA01101]
- European Community
- BMBF North Atlantic II project
- NASA Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction program
- French GICC EPIDOM Project
- Spanish RUCSS project
- NERC [NE/I020792/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Natural Environment Research Council [ncas10009, NE/I020792/1] Funding Source: researchfish
This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addresses the use of decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system. External forcing influences the predictions throughout, but their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most of the improved skill from initialization with observations vanishes after about 6-9 years. Recent multimodel results suggest that there is relatively more decadal predictive skill in the North Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans than in other regions of the world oceans. Aspects of decadal variability of SSTs, like the mid-1970s shift in the Pacific, the mid-1990s shift in the northern North Atlantic and western Pacific, and the early-2000s hiatus, are better represented in initialized hindcasts compared to uninitialized simulations. There is evidence of higher skill in initialized multimodel ensemble decadal hindcasts than in single model results, with multimodel initialized predictions for near-term climate showing somewhat less global warming than uninitialized simulations. Some decadal hindcasts have shown statistically reliable predictions of surface temperature over various land and ocean regions for lead times of up to 6-9 years, but this needs to be investigated in a wider set of models. As in the early days of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction, improvements to models will reduce the need for bias adjustment, and increase the reliability, and thus usefulness, of decadal climate predictions in the future.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据