期刊
BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
卷 72, 期 8, 页码 2004-2018出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11538-010-9521-8
关键词
Cholera; SIR model; Sensitivity analysis; Basic reproductive number; Optimal control
资金
- National Science Foundation [DMS-0813563]
- National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis NSF [EF-0832858]
- NSF [ITR-0427471]
- Division Of Mathematical Sciences
- Direct For Mathematical & Physical Scien [0813563] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Division Of Mathematical Sciences
- Direct For Mathematical & Physical Scien [0813691] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Div Of Biological Infrastructure
- Direct For Biological Sciences [0832858] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
While cholera has been a recognized disease for two centuries, there is no strategy for its effective control. We formulate a mathematical model to include essential components such as a hyperinfectious, short-lived bacterial state, a separate class for mild human infections, and waning disease immunity. A new result quantifies contributions to the basic reproductive number from multiple infectious classes. Using optimal control theory, parameter sensitivity analysis, and numerical simulations, a cost-effective balance of multiple intervention methods is compared for two endemic populations. Results provide a framework for designing cost-effective strategies for diseases with multiple intervention methods.
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