期刊
AMERICAN JOURNAL ON ADDICTIONS
卷 18, 期 1, 页码 36-47出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1080/10550490802408829
关键词
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资金
- NIDA NIH HHS [K02 DA017822-03, R01 DA019157, K02-DA017822, P50 DA005605-139010, K02 DA017822, P50 DA005605-189004, K02 DA018701, K02 DA018701-03, P50 DA005605-169001, K02-DA018701, P50 DA005605, R01 DA019157-03] Funding Source: Medline
- PHS HHS [P50-05605] Funding Source: Medline
- NATIONAL INSTITUTE ON DRUG ABUSE [K02DA017822, P50DA005605, K02DA018701, R01DA019157] Funding Source: NIH RePORTER
Employing a prospective paradigm, this investigation derived the childhood phenotype and the environtype associated with risk for cannabis use disorder. Two hundred and sixteen boys were evaluated between age 10-12 on a comprehensive protocol using self, mother, and teacher reports and followed-up at ages 19 and 22 to determine the presence of cannabis use disorder. The Transmissible Liability Index (TLI) and Non-Transmissible Liability Index (NTLI) were derived using item response theory. Logistic regression was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the indexes, singly and in combination, to predict cannabis use disorder. The TLI and NTLI together predicted with 70% and 75% accuracy cannabis use disorder manifest by age 19 and age 22. Sensitivity was 75% at both ages 19 and 22, whereas specificity was respectively 51% and 64%. The findings pertaining to sensitivity indicate that SUD risk for cannabis use disorder can be screened in childhood; however, the specificity scores demonstrate that a low score on the TLI does not inevitably portend a good prognosis up to 10 years later.
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