期刊
BUILDING RESEARCH AND INFORMATION
卷 38, 期 3, 页码 301-317出版社
ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/09613211003729988
关键词
building stocks; construction demand; dynamic material flow analysis; housing stock; longevity; trends; urbanization; China
资金
- European Union [CN/ASIA-LINK (110-744)]
- Dutch Academy of Art and Science [09CDP009]
The massive migration flows from rural to urban areas in China, combined with an expected decline in the total population over the next decades, leads to two important challenges for China's housing: the growth of its urban housing stock and the shrinkage of rural housing. The rural and urban housing systems in China were analyzed using a dynamic material flow analysis model for the period 1900-2100 for several scenarios assuming different development paths for population, urbanization, housing demand per capita, and building lifetime. The simulation results indicate that new housing construction is likely to decline for several decades due to the fast growth over the past 30 years and the expected increased longevity of dwellings. Such an oscillation of new construction activity would have significant implications for the construction industry, employment, raw material demand, and greenhouse gas emissions to produce the construction materials. Policy and practical options for mitigating the negative impacts are considered.
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