期刊
BRITISH JOURNAL OF SURGERY
卷 101, 期 8, 页码 976-982出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/bjs.9528
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资金
- UK National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme [08/30/02]
- British Heart Foundation [RG/08/014/24067] Funding Source: researchfish
- Medical Research Council [MR/L003120/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- National Institute for Health Research [NF-SI-0512-10165, 08/30/02] Funding Source: researchfish
- MRC [MR/L003120/1] Funding Source: UKRI
Background: Implementation of the National Health Service abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening programme (NAAASP) for men aged 65 years began in England in 2009. An important element of the evidence base supporting its introduction was the economic modelling of the long-term cost-effectiveness of screening, which was based mainly on 4-year follow-up data from the Multicentre Aneurysm Screening Study (MASS) randomized trial. Concern has been expressed about whether this conclusion of cost-effectiveness still holds, given the early performance parameters, particularly the lower prevalence of AAA observed in NAAASP. Methods: The existing published model was adjusted and updated to reflect the current best evidence. It was recalibrated to mirror the 10-year follow-up data from MASS; the main cost parameters were re-estimated to reflect current practice; and more robust estimates of AAA growth and rupture rates from recent meta-analyses were incorporated, as were key parameters as observed in NAAASP (attendance rates, AAA prevalence and size distributions). Results: The revised and updated model produced estimates of the long-term incremental cost-effectiveness of 5758 pound (95 per cent confidence interval 4285 pound to 7410) pound per life-year gained, or 7370 pound (5467 pound to 9443) pound per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Conclusion: Although the updated parameters, particularly the increased costs and lower AAA prevalence, have increased the cost per QALY, the latest modelling provides evidence that AAA screening as now being implemented in England is still highly cost-effective.
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