Does smoking among friends explain apparent genetic effects on current smoking in adolescence and young adulthood?

We used data from a prospective cohort study of twins to investigate the influence of unmeasured genetic and measured and unmeasured environmental factors on the smoking behaviour of adolescents and young adults. Twins were surveyed in 1988 (aged 11 - 18 years), 1991, 1996 and 2004 with data from 1409, 1121, 732 and 758 pairs analysed from each survey wave, respectively. Questionnaires assessed the smoking behaviour of twins and the perceived smoking behaviour of friends and parents. Using a novel logistic regression analysis, we simultaneously modelled individual risk and excess concordance for current smoking as a function of zygosity, survey wave, parental smoking and peer smoking. Being concordant for having peers who smoked was a predictor of concordance for current smoking (P < 0.001). After adjusting for peer smoking, monozygotic (MZ) pairs were no more alike than dizygotic pairs for current smoking at waves 2, 3 and 4. Genetic explanations are not needed to explain the greater concordance for current smoking among adult MZ pairs. However, if they are invoked, the role of genes may be due to indirect effects acting through the social environment. Smoking prevention efforts may benefit more by targeting social factors than attempting to identify genetic factors associated with smoking.